The 48-year-old Nashville native, who works as regional investment manager for Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank, already was among a minority of Wall Street specialists who felt the nation would soon see a slightly brighter jobs picture. He expects actual job growth — rather than monthly job losses — to start in the first half of next year.
Russell, who was born at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in 1961 while his father was in medical school here, has worked for U.S. Bank almost three years after earlier stints with Fifth Third Bank in Cincinnati and SunTrust in Atlanta.
Russell, who manages accounts for high net worth clients and supervises other portfolio managers at U.S. Bank, discussed what lies ahead in 2010 for Wall Street and the economy with Tennessean Business Editor Randy McClain.
How much more unemployment risk do you expect in 2010 for the Nashville area and the nation as a whole?
December or January will represent the peaking of unemployment nationally for this business cycle. Anything after that period, we're likely to see some sideways movement and then more moderation as we head into spring. Tennessee and Nashville, in particular, will follow that national trend.
Nashville's economy is stronger than most because of health-care and university employment. The only real drag on the area's economy has been the GM-Spring Hill situation, which may have cost as much as 9,800 jobs lost at the old Saturn plant and at suppliers as the plant (stopped production).
So, you're more optimistic than many analysts and economists on how long and deep U.S. job loss will be from here on out?
Well, the unemployment picture is slowly improving; we're not where we need to be yet. But the productivity statistics that I've seen nationally indicate that business is indeed picking up, and productivity has reached historic highs.
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