Sunday, January 17, 2010

Growth stocks are back on top

BOSTON — Growth is in; value is out. And it's likely to stay that way this year.
Investors who loaded their portfolios with growth stocks were rewarded in 2009. Those stocks gained an average 37 percent, nearly twice as much as value stocks.

Growth's notable performance was largely fueled by technology stocks, the biggest part of the growth category. Experts say those companies will continue to prosper as customers ramp up tech spending coming out of the recession. But experts caution a tech rally as big as last year's is unlikely.

There's no pat definition for growth stocks, but typically they generate revenue and earnings at an above-average rate. Examples are Apple and Google. Value stocks generally produce steady earnings, often pay out dividends and are considered cheap based on their price-to-earnings ratios. Companies like Bank of America, McDonald's and Wal-Mart fall into this category.

The leadership shift to growth from value marks a break from historical patterns. All told, the annual performance of growth stocks surpassed value stocks just twice in the last decade. Also, value stocks normally do much better coming out of a recession, as more economically sensitive stocks like banks and utilities rebound at the earliest signs that the economy is expanding.

"Typically, the bigger the contraction during a recession, the bigger the snapback when the economy turns," said Stephen Wood, chief market strategist of Russell Investments. "That hasn't happened this time."

This recovery has been tepid. The economy is growing about half as fast as it usually does exiting a recession, Wood said. Though the stock market has climbed 70 percent since last March, unemployment remains at 10 percent.

Still it's clear that growth stocks were hot in 2009. Growth stocks within the Russell 3000, a broad index covering 98 percent of the U.S. stock market, surged 37 percent last year. Value stocks ended with a more modest 20 percent gain.

That big gap was reminiscent of the late 1990s, when growth had its last big run. Of course, that fizzled in early 2000 as the dot-com bust pummeled technology companies.

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