Internet analysts at comScore Inc. expect online retail revenue to rise 3 percent to $28.8 billion for the months of November and December. That includes the Web sites of traditional retailers, such as Macy's, but excludes auctions, travel and large corporate purchases.
Meanwhile, U.S. holiday retail sales — excluding online — are expected to drop 1 percent from last year, according to the National Retail Federation, the largest retail trade group.
Online estimates and data-gathering methods vary, but e-commerce analysts and Web retailers agree: This year can't possibly be as bad as last year, when the shock of the financial meltdown was still fresh for consumers. ComScore charted a 3 percent drop for Web retail that holiday season — the first such decline since it started tracking the category in 2001.
Much of the growth expected in online shopping — which accounts for about 7 percent of overall retail sales, according to Forrester Research — is attributed to one factor in particular: Shopping online is a major time saver. You can sidestep crowds, compare prices and ship gifts anywhere without leaving your couch or taking off your bunny slippers.
Jennifer Lankford, 28, expects to buy gifts on the Web for her young cousins and boyfriend this year, saying she hates waiting in lines.
"I can only spend so much time in stores or in a mall before I need to get out of there," she said.
For Lankford and many other consumers, online shopping is also synonymous with bargains.
Steep discounts and free shipping are expected to be the norm this holiday season.
EBay Inc. is trying to woo customers to its huge online marketplace by focusing on holiday deals that include free shipping and guaranteed returns on new items from sellers.
It also is promoting products that are new but not necessarily the latest and greatest. On billboards in San Francisco, for example, eBay reminds consumers they can save money by buying last year's models.
Perhaps no Web retailer has been as successful at convincing consumers that it has bargains as Amazon, which managed to shrug off the recession last year and reported what it called its "best ever" holiday season. Amazon's fourth-quarter revenue rose 18 percent to $6.7 billion last year.
Paul Ryder, Amazon's vice president of consumer electronics, said that the economy seems more stable now than it did a year ago, when reluctant shoppers caused a bit of retailer panic. "This season is not like that," he said, "but I think every retailer recognizes that customers are watching their pennies."
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