"As economic conditions improve, there's a renewed sense of optimism and momentum building," said J.D. Power and Associates analyst Jeff Schuster. "While 2009 has been a difficult year, this crisis will lead to innovation and efficiency gains, ultimately creating a healthier industry."
Overall, J.D. Power is looking for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales to come in at 10.3 million cars and trucks.
While that would represent a slight pullback from a year ago, it would still be the best year-over-year comparison in 17 months, not including the anomaly of the summer's federal Cash for Clunkers program.
Separately, Edmunds.com issued similar targets Thursday, with Hyundai's 38 percent improvement leading the way. Nissan Motors and Honda Motor Co. also are expected to hand in improved sales.
But perhaps most notably, GM likely will unveil better monthly numbers for the first time in more than a year and a half, thanks to liberal spending on advertising and incentives, according to Edmunds.com.
"We should certainly see some strong market-share gains for GM in October," according to Edmunds analyst Jessica Caldwell. "If we don't, that would be some really scary news considering the aggressive marketing push the company has made this month."
Cash for Clunkers: good or bad for industry?Edmunds.com expects a 5.7 percent improvement for GM, while Chrysler and its dearth of new products occupies the other end of the spectrum with a 31.4 percent retreat.
Chrysler's future will become more clear when Fiat's Sergio Marchionne lays out his grand plans for the partnership next week outside of Detroit.
Ford Motor Co., which has drawn praise for avoiding government aid while rolling out a strong new lineup, is seen showing a 3.5 percent decline.
The industry numbers are still well below the highs of earlier this decade, due in part to the still-wounded economy but also because of the Cash for Clunkers hangover.
The government's stimulus program triggered a massive rush of buyers in August, and led some analysts to question whether it was merely a temporary blip that would only pull sales ahead from the coming months.
"If the government just wanted to stimulate sales in the short term, sure, it was a success," Caldwell said. "But for long-term growth and how it ultimately affects the overall industry, it definitely was not a success."
AutoNation Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Mike Jackson, however, contends that it was one of the best stimulus programs he's ever seen.
Jackson anticipates the industry will get back to the 16 million level within five years.
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