That conclusion comes from a new study that adds to concerns about whether there will be enough doctors to care for patients in the years ahead. Researchers found that delays in an industry trade group's updates of employment data as doctors retire or experience a change in work status lead to overstatements of how many physicians are actually working.
A comparative analysis of U.S. Census data found that far fewer physicians ages 55 and up are remaining active and that younger physicians are entering the work force at a higher rate. That implies a younger, smaller work force now and in 2020 than gets reflected in the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile.
"If we're going to really count on an adequate physician supply — with or without health-care reform — we've got to do a better job estimating the supply and demand for physicians," said Peter Buerhaus, co-author of the study and director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Health Workforce Strategies in the Institute for Medicine and Public Health at Vanderbilt.
Meanwhile, the study published in last week's issue of TheJournal of the American Medical Association contradicts the notion that adding more female doctors to the work force won't increase the future supply of physicians under the theory that many women will leave the work force to raise children.
They do leave, but most often they return eventually, the findings show. The percentage of women doctors over age 55 working at least 20 hours a week soars once their children have grown up.
That's also the age range during which most male physicians start to retire, making the return of the women more critical to pick up the slack.
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